Rising unemployment means the economy concerned is not doing well. Then, unemployment is not just about a figure. The individuals or families whose members are without work know how it hurts. From that point of view, the recently published report on the country's unemployment rate at 4.63 per cent during the October-December period of the current fiscal year (FY2024-25) is concerning. And that is because the latest unemployment rate is one of the highest rates recorded so far by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
Before sounding the alarm bell, one would do well to keep in mind that the period under survey was also the one that followed the nationwide political unrest and the uprising leading to the ouster of the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina. Also, the time was marked by widespread labour unrest especially in the Readymade Garment (RMG) sector. Obviously, these can be referred to as the immediate cause of such a high rate of unemployment during the period in question. At the same time, it is also important to note that the years before the survey period in question, the autocratic regime was marked by what economists term 'jobless growth'. It is a condition when an economy experiences growth in terms of GDP output, but does not lead to a corresponding increase in employment. The apparent reason was that the private sector was investment-shy due to a multiplicity of factors including fast declining foreign exchange reserves with the resulting import restriction, sharp fall in the value of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) against US dollar (USD) and high inflation. Evidently, all these factors together militated against the creation of new jobs in the economy.
Referring to the BBS Labour Force Survey 2023, a report published in 2024's December 4 issue of this paper said that 2023's employment growth was the lowest in 12 years, as the economy in that year generated only 0.51 million new jobs which was well below the annual average of 1.12 million since 2013. Now, what does the record of 2024's last quarter say? Based on the unemployment rate (of 4.63 per cent), which was also according to the findings of the quarterly Labour Force Survey of the BBS, during that quarter of 2024, around 3.02 million people were out of employment compared to that of the year before. Definitely these are upsetting statistics. But sometimes one needs also to go into the methodological details of how these unemployment figures are arrived at. Notably, the method used to calculate October-December, 2024's unemployment rate was done in line with the 19th International Conference on Labour Statisticians (ICLS). The high rate of unemployment recorded according this latest ICLS standards marks a significant increase from the rate of unemployment at 3.95 per cent recorded during the same period in the previous year. Interestingly, according to the 13th ICLS standards that BBS still follows, the unemployment rate recorded in December 2024 was 3.69 per cent, which is way higher than that recorded a year before. In a similar vein, according to 19th ICLS, the total number of the unemployed has risen to 2.73 million, though as per the 13th ICLS, the number (of unemployed) would be 2.61 million.
However, seeing that the unemployment rates and numbers might vary depending on how unemployment is defined or the particular methods used to calculate those, there is still little room for complacency. As joblessness is the most depressing indicator of an economy, the government should concentrate its highest effort on creation of new jobs both in the public and the private sectors.
