Three months ago, Yuval Noah Harari, a famous historian and writer, wrote a piece in the Financial Times (FT) describing Donald Trump's global vision. Harari pointed out that the president of the United States believed in the 'might is right' policy. He added that in the Trumpian vision, the weak should always surrender to the strong. Harari further mentioned that to prevent global conflicts, Trump offers a simple solution: the weak to do whatever the strong demand. "According to this view, conflict occurs only when the weak refuse to accept reality. War is therefore always the fault of the weak," he continued.
By bombing Iran's nuclear facilities in the last week, Donald Trump proved the truth of Harari's assertion. The world has witnessed how the most mighty country bombed a weaker one violating all the international laws and norms. Not that it is the first time the US has demonstrated its power to penalise a small or weak country. Over the decades, the US attacked, occupied, bombed and ruined several countries.
It was around 80 years ago, the US dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, two Japanese cities that led to the unconditional surrender of Japan in 1945. It was one of the most horrific events in the history of humanity. Since then, no countries in the world have used any atomic weapon, considering the severe consequences on human lives and the environment. Nevertheless, attacks and bombings by powerful countries and forces on weaker ones have continued in various forms and on unsubstantiated pretexts. But, Trump has initiated an extended aggressiveness and a perilous trend to subjugate weaker countries to stronger ones. He has also set an example that powerful countries can defy diplomatic efforts and cheat the parties engaged in discussion to settle any dispute. The events in the last few weeks are examples of such diplomatic covertness and breaches.
In the name of negotiation, the US engaged Iran in discussion and secretly signalled Israel to launch pre-emptive attack on Iran. Caught off-guard Iran, however, absorbed the primary shock and started to retaliate. For the first time in 77 years of its existence, Israel faces unprecedented attacks of missiles and experienced wreckages in various parts of the country. As the war intensified, Israeli PM Netanyahu pushed the US to join the war. Trump, tempted to do something that his predecessors avoided, bombed Iran and assured Israel that the Zionist nation would continue to get American backing.
Soon, it will be increasingly challenging for any country, especially small and vulnerable ones, to maintain trust in the US and other major nations regarding diplomatic negotiations. It is not unlikely that, following the US precedent, other major and powerful countries will start to undermine diplomatic orders and norms. Small nations will be compelled to accept many unjust and irrational demands of the powerful countries.
As ignoring the United Nations (UN) and other international organisations becomes a practice rather than an exception among powerful nations, the world order will collapse. Trump and like-minded rulers in the world's powerful countries will be pleased to see this. The global rules and norms of checks and balances will be seriously dysfunctional, making the small and weak nations vulnerable. Most of them have to rely on the mercy of their big and powerful neighbours. In this process, there will be a rise in a number of vassal states, though in various forms and conditions.
The way the US is now moving to reshape the Middle East may prompt other powerful nations to venture into reshaping their own spheres of influence. Russia has already invaded Ukraine, and the two countries have been at war for more than three years. As the US and Europe have been helping Ukraine by supplying arms and ammunition, the country has so far kept Russia in check at a high cost. The US support is, however, dwindling as Trump thinks Putin is not guilty of attacking Ukraine.
Or, what will happen if China overruns Taiwan? The large countries are substantially powerful and their small neighbours are no match for them. The strongmen who now rule these countries and some other powerful ones also share many of the Trumpian world views.
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