The number of unemployed educated youth is on a steady rise in the country, and the young people are increasingly interested in government jobs. In a recent column of Prothom Alo, I had dubbed this as the BCS craze. Everyone, after all, won’t get a government job, so what will they do? They are not even preparing themselves for alternative jobs. This is creating inconsistencies in the job market.
According to the public administration ministry, about 18,000 persons were appointed to the BCS (Bangladesh Civil Service) cadres from 2009 to 2013, while 386,000 were appointed to government institutions under various ministries. Every year about 450,000 are getting post graduate degrees while there are vacancies in around 350,000 government posts. It will take at least five years to accommodate these young men and women with post graduate degrees if they want to join at government service at the lowest pay scale. Then again, what about those who pass each year during these five years?
According to the World Bank, in recent years 60% of the students have enrolled in secondary education. Of them, generally speaking, about 15% go on for post-secondary education at universities. This means, other than the 450,000 postgraduate youth, there is a large section that ends their education at the secondary level.
In the recent years about 800,000 students passed the higher secondary exams. This is 10% of the total workforce. If those among this 10% seeking a post higher secondary education want to get government jobs at the 16th grade pay scale, it will not be possible to accommodate them. Around 70 thousand to 80 thousand are recruited to government service annually. That means, one of every five of these higher educated youth is lucky if they can avail a government job.
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, in 2015 about 72 per cent of government job appointments were in the 3rd class, about 7 per cent in the 1st class and 16 per cent in the second class. This was not more than 10% of the total workforce. The others would have to seek private sector jobs. Generally, the higher the GDP growth, the higher the employment. So to ensure employment, there is no alternative to increasing investment.
There are three factors in the country that contribute to unemployment. First is if the demand for workforce is less. Second is if the supply of workforce is higher than the demand. And third is if the supply of skilled workforce does not meet the demand for skills. The third factor is the most frustrating.
BIDS (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies) recently published a survey on the skills gap. In the three sectors of economy, more than 42% of the labour force is in the agriculture sector, but the contribution of agriculture in the GDP is on the decline. The agro-processing industry lacks most in skills. The readymade garment industry contributes about 25% of the industrial sector contribution to the GDP while readymade garments ranks second in the index of skills deficiency. As a whole, the national workforce is seriously lacking in skills. The youth do not receive education appropriate to the market demands.
An Asia Foundation study carried out by two teachers of economics at Dhaka University, Bazlul Haque Khondker and Selim Raihan, shows the contribution of different sectors to the economy. It shows the employment ratio of a specific sector in comparison with its growth rate. The combined contribution of the agro-forestry and fisheries sector to the job market is about 45%. Trade, hotel and restaurant industry combined contributes around 14.50%, while the readymade garment industry’s contribution is around 8.50%.
But if sector-wise growth is compared to employment growth, then these sectors lag behind. In 2013 growth of the electrical goods manufacturing sector increased by 1 per cent while employment in the sector went up by 21 per cent. Other sectors contributing to increased employment were the chemical, rubber, plastic, minerals, tannery and leather product industries. Employment is gradually shrinking in the larger sectors. The questions remain, is our education system able to supply skilled manpower to these sectors? Are the youth interested in these sectors? The youth have a preference for civil service and armed forces which contribute 3% to the national economy and less than 1.5 per cent to employment.
Reality is that the youth still feel insecure even after 18. Like the rest of the society, they are assailed by apprehensions and insecurities. The social safety nets must be strengthened so that the advancement of youth is not impeded. Families must nurture similar attitudes. International labour laws must be enforced in the private service too. The government must be strict about this. Specialised education must be given priority over general education. The education sector must be reorganised according to present and future demands of various sectors. This calls for an integrated policy and efforts. Unless this is ensured, we will not reap dividends from the population. Our unemployment problems will also not be solved.
* Shahidul Islam is research associate, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). This piece, originally published in Prothom Alo Bangla print edition, has been rewritten in English by Nusrat Nowrin.
